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Feb 13, 2026
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LONG
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"The Pentagon redeploy is the USS Jerry Ford Carrier Strike Group once again heading back toward Iran... We did not obliterate [Iran's nuclear program]. They have the ability to rebuild it." The movement of a major Carrier Strike Group combined with the admission that Iran's nuclear capabilities remain intact suggests a high probability of continued or escalated conflict. "Kinetic action" benefits defense primes (replenishing munitions) and creates a risk premium in energy markets due to potential Strait of Hormuz disruptions. LONG Defense and Energy as a hedge against Middle East escalation. Diplomatic de-escalation or a decision by the administration to withdraw support unexpectedly. |
Bloomberg Markets
Using Force Against Iran Could Backfire, Sen....
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Feb 13, 2026
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SHORT
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"Department of Homeland Security will be closed and set to shut down tonight... talking about the prospect of paychecks for folks in the TSA." When DHS funding lapses, TSA agents work without pay. Historically, this leads to "sick-outs," massive airport delays, and reduced travel efficiency. This directly impacts airline operations and consumer sentiment for travel in the immediate term. SHORT / AVOID Airlines due to operational risks from the government shutdown. A last-minute budget deal is reached in Washington, averting the shutdown. |
Bloomberg Markets
Using Force Against Iran Could Backfire, Sen....
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Feb 13, 2026
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AVOID
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"ICE... is an agency that has just run amok... I am not in favor of funding them beyond what the president gave them... The agency needs to be fixed in a dramatic way." Private prison and detention center operators rely heavily on ICE contracts and funding growth. Senator Kelly signals that Senate Democrats will "hold the line" against expanding ICE's budget, creating a legislative ceiling on the revenue growth for these contractors. AVOID Private Detention stocks due to political gridlock and funding caps. Republicans may force a budget bill that includes increased ICE funding despite Democratic opposition. |
Bloomberg Markets
Using Force Against Iran Could Backfire, Sen....
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